Heading into the first full week of October, there’ll be a lot to watch for as an investor. Canada is scheduled to release key metrics on trade activity and its labour market. Markets will continue to monitor any developments in the conflict in the Middle East and how that impacts energy prices and inflation. The analysis of trade tensions between Canada and the US will continue after the US ban of certain Canadian imports went into effect last week.

Statistics Canada will announce Canada’s international merchandise trade on Tuesday. Canada’s trade surplus narrowed in July in response to a drop in exports while imports increased.
Canada’s labour market data, for September will be released on Friday. Canada’s economy lost jobs in August for the first time in four months. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%, a two-year low.
In the US, the US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) will release its meeting minutes on Wednesday. The Fed raised interest rates at its last meeting and is expected to do so again in 2026.
Looking around the world, Europe’s retail sales will be released tomorrow, UK home prices on Wednesday, Mexico’s inflation rate on Thursday and Japan’s household spending on Thursday night.
Notable earnings in Canada include Aritzia and MTY Food Group. Key earnings in the US include PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines.

While always important, Canada’s trade report has become even more critical give trade tensions with the US and the federal government’s efforts to diversify trade. While much of the focus has been on inflation, this will be the last labour market report before the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) next interest rate decision. The BoC uses monetary policy to try to keep the economy at full employment. Canada’s central bank will need to monitor how much policy support the labour market may need.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.