What will the spring bring? Economic outlook, federal budget and more
Thank you for joining our Private Wealth advisor webcast on March 30, 2023. In case you missed it or would like to rewatch, here’s the replay.
During the event, Benjamin Tal provided his views on the macroeconomic landscape, Kate Lazier discussed charitable giving strategies, and Jamie Golombek shared insights on the 2023 federal budget. Here are some key takeaways:
Global economic outlook
- The recent US banking issues are a clear disinflationary event, and the market is rewarding liquidity. Interest rates paid to depositors will remain elevated and credit growth will slow; However, Canadian banks are in a much better position than their US and European peers.
- All five sources of inflation which include energy and food prices, supply chain issues, rent and wages are starting to show clear softening trajectories.
- The Bank of Canada has already reached its final rate hike, while the US Federal Reserve is very close to it.
- Both central banks are likely to start cutting rates in early 2024; the market is currently pricing in a first cut in the second half of 2023.
- Long-term inflationary forces such as deglobalization, the need to keep an elevated level of inventories, and a tight labour market suggest interest rates will end up being higher than the levels seen in the previous economic cycle.
Considerations on charitable giving
- Federal and provincial governments provide tax incentives designed to encourage charitable donations.
- Married individuals and common law partners can combine charitable donations and one spouse or partner can claim all donations up to their personal limit.
- While charities welcome gifts of cash, donating certain securities that have increased in value can result in more tax savings. Eligible securities include stocks or bonds listed on a designated stock exchange, and certain mutual fund units or segregated funds.
Federal budget highlights
- If you’re a high-income taxpayer, you should reach out to your tax advisor to see whether you may be impacted by the new Alternative Minimum Tax in 2024.
- Prepare for the launch of the First Home Savings Account – gifting money to adult kids to fund their contributions can be a great way to help them save for a down payment on a first home.
The “Triple Benefit” corporate donation strategy (PDF, 400 KB)
At CIBC Private Wealth, we take a comprehensive approach to managing, building and protecting your wealth. If you'd like to discuss this market and economic update in more detail or have questions about your investments, please get in touch with me any time.