As the seasons shift, the days grow shorter, and cooler weather slowly creeps in once more. These annual transformations, while predictable, have a knack for catching us by surprise, as if we’ve forgotten that fall is an old friend returning.

 

In a curious parallel, the recent market trends of the past quarter mirror this sense of unexpected change. Interest rate hikes were diligently at work, inflation seemed tamed, and the markets were dancing along like a carefree summer’s day.

 

Enter increases to the price of Brent Crude Oil, with the OPEC+ decision to cut production and send prices soaring, setting off an unexpected rally in inflation. This sudden twist prompted Central Bankers to raise rates once again, casting a chill over the market akin to a brisk fall evening.

 

Meanwhile, the US Government found itself in another dilemma this year (last time, it was the debt ceiling debacle), teetering on the brink of yet another government shutdown. This, too, contributed to the September market sell-off. Fortunately, Congress stepped in with a stopgap funding bill, and life marches on.

 

Here’s the silver lining amidst the inflation and interest rate storm: despite the relentless headlines, the underlying market remains positive year-to-date. As we consistently emphasize, “well-run businesses will continue to prosper,” a refrain echoing through each of our updates.

 

In essence, throughout the markets’ long history, there have always been reasons to hesitate when it comes to investing. From the Great Depression to the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, presidential assassinations, energy crises, oil price surges, housing meltdowns, and even a global pandemic – the news cycles have painted the market in a negative light over 90 times in the past century. Yet, like the changing of the seasons, the market persists in looking ahead to the opportunities on the horizon, confident that warmer days will return.

 

As always we thank you for putting your trust in our team, we are always available to discuss your portfolio and answer any questions or concerns you may have.