Happy Thanksgiving,

 

It appears the summer months have officially left us, as the days are getting shorter and the temperatures have definitively dropped. With this seasonal change it’s a good time to assess where we are at in 2024.

 

The past few years have provided so many talking points (unfortunately most of them have been extremes); and the last three months have truly held their own in this regard.

 

We have seen significant instability across the geopolitical landscape, violence in the middle east, continued war in Ukraine, a US Presidential Election campaign which seems to get more chaotic by the day, as well as labor strikes dominating the news.

 

Yet global markets continue to rise, slowly but surely, turning this chaotic year into a great time for investment in well managed companies.

 

A lot of what has happened in the market this year is due to the work that central banks across the globe have done over the last 3 years.

 

A few years ago, central banks around the globe were committed to reducing inflation; and increased rates to temper consumer demand and other inflationary elements.

 

The good news is that the strategy has worked. While prices have not dropped, the pace at which they are rising is back in line with long term expectations.

 

Q3 of this year marked a very important development in the fight against inflation.

 

It was the first quarter in almost five years that no central bank across the globe hiked interest rates and in fact the major central banks unanimously dropped rates this quarter.

 

As rates are expected to continue to come down we expect this to help lift corporate profits in major economies.

 

We are cautiously optimistic for future investment markets, however as the market continues to run we reiterate the importance of investing in extremely well run businesses, with excellent products and services, strong balance sheets and high barriers to entry.

 

These hallmarks of corporate sustainability provide peace of mind for us to continue to focus not on the short term but rather the likelihood that these businesses will continue to prosper for many years to come.

 

I want to highlight what I had said at the same time last year:

 

“throughout the markets’ long history, there have always been reasons to hesitate when it comes to investing.

 

From the Great Depression to the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, presidential assassinations, energy crises, oil price surges, housing meltdowns, and even a global pandemic – the news cycles have painted the market in a negative light over 90 times in the past century.

 

Yet, like the changing of the seasons, the market persists in looking ahead to the opportunities on the horizon, confident that warmer days will return”.

 

As always we thank you for putting your trust in our team, we are always available to discuss your portfolio and answer any questions or concerns you may have.

 

Phil

 

 

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