Good morning,

As the days shorten and the weather cools we are slowly but surely walking towards the winter. The third quarter of 2026 brought us quite an interesting mix of things to discuss; markets kept moving, inflation turned up the heat, and politics added a little extra spice.

Despite plenty of economic and geopolitical noise, North American markets finished Q3 higher. But with inflation proving to be stubborn, interest rates rising in the U.S. and uncertainty building ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, investors have plenty to keep an eye on.

In the US the market continued its steady climb, but this was in large part supported by big tech, AI enthusiasm and resilient corporate earnings. 

The Canadian market continued its run with a bit more breadth than the US side; with energy, materials and financials remaining important market drivers. 

Globally performance was much more mixed, as higher energy prices, trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty kept investors on their toes. 

Putting this all together the market party is still going, but investors are watching the economic weather forecast a little more closely. 

There are many themes that have continued to be in focus over the past few years, with Interest Rates being one of the most talked about and the question remains Higher for Longer?

Central banks had a tricky balancing act in Q3; just when we were all hoping for some pricing relief, inflation returned to take the spotlight.

The question now is can central banks keep inflation under control without putting too much pressure on economic growth?

As we know higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, inevitably this will squeeze corporate earnings, reminding us that quality of business remains the most important driver.

The real concern isn't just inflation on its own. It's the combination of higher costs, tighter financial conditions and potentially slower growth.

With the US mid term elections approaching we anticipate the market will likely get a little more volatile. In times like this we should all remember investment success requires patience, discipline, and a continued focus on the long term.

As we’ve said before, well capitalized, well managed businesses will continue to prosper over time.

As always, if you have any questions or concerns, I’d be happy to connect and discuss how this impacts your individual portfolio.

Have a great week,
Phil