In card game terms, to "fold" can be defined as: "to concede; to withdraw or surrender the current hand or game". Now, you may be asking yourself, what does a card game and the Strait of Hormuz have in common?  More than you might think. Iran has effectively shut the strait to normal commercial transit, demanding ships pay a transit fee to pass through its waters. The United States responded by blocking Iran's ports entirely. The result is a stalemate with no obvious exits and options that range from bad to worse. Both sides are sitting at the table, staring each other down, and neither is ready to fold.

Both sides are projecting patience, each convinced time is on their side. Iran's leadership is ideological and battle-hardened, many having personally endured the Iran-Iraq War. But Iran was already facing 60% inflation and mass protests before this crisis began. Those grievances have not disappeared. Trump says he feels "no pressure," and as the world's largest oil producer, the US is more insulated from energy shocks than it once was. But energy trades globally, and with roughly 1/5th of global oil supplies now disrupted, that pressure will eventually reach American shores. So both sides believe the other will fold first, which means neither may fold at all.

Breakthroughs require concessions, and neither side appears prepared to make them. Iran has already fired missiles and drones at non-compliant ships; walking that back would be a significant loss of face. The US surrendering the principle of free navigation would shift regional power decisively toward Tehran and raise uncomfortable questions about other contested waterways, including the Taiwan Strait.

Military force remains an option, but not a clean one. The Red Sea demonstrated that naval coalitions are better at shooting down drones than restoring shipping confidence. Iran's missiles can be launched from deep inside its territory, well beyond easy reach, and retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure would worsen the economic shocks already underway. Or Trump just wants to flex the American taxpayer's dollar...

The most realistic assessment is that the strait may remain effectively closed for the foreseeable future. Gulf states are already hedging: Saudi Arabia's east-west pipelines, Iraqi Mediterranean routes, and the UAE's Port of Fujairah are all gaining strategic importance precisely because they bypass Hormuz entirely. The long-term logic is sound, however infrastructure takes years, not months. Until then, the world remains trapped in the Great Strait Stalemate, and the question of who folds at the table first remains unanswered.

Source: https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-growth-and-financial-implications