The agreement signed in Calgary on May 15, 2026 did not emerge from nowhere. For years, Alberta's relationship with Ottawa had been defined by tension, grievance and a growing separatist movement that forced the question of what keeping Alberta in Confederation was actually worth. The result is an agreement that delivers something Alberta has wanted for a long time: a government-backed pathway to a West Coast pipeline. Whether you read the overall deal as federalism working as it should, or as Ottawa moving fastest when the threat of provincial separation is loudest, the timeline and the concessions tell an interesting story.

Indigenous co-ownership is central to how this project has been framed from the start. From the earliest stages of engagement, Indigenous communities in both Alberta and British Columbia have been involved as decision-makers and genuine partners. Both governments have reaffirmed Canada's duty to consult with Indigenous peoples throughout the process. Insights gathered through that engagement are meant to shape the route, environmental protections, construction methods and marine safety standards. Whether that commitment holds up under the pressure of a fast-moving timeline is the question Indigenous communities along any BC route will be worth watching closely.

For BC, the core issue is straightforward: any route to tidewater runs through this province. However, the agreement was negotiated without BC at the table... Premier David Eby put it plainly, arguing the federal government is "rewarding bad behaviour" given the separatist pressure brewing in Alberta. Carney has committed to meeting with Eby to discuss a path forward, but is this too little too late? The economic projections are also significant, with previous estimates suggesting as much as $3.8 billion in annual government revenues across Canada and 800,000 jobs over the project's lifetime. BC communities along any eventual route stand to share in those benefits. How the province's concerns are addressed in the months between now and the July 2026 submission deadline will go a long way toward determining whether this agreement delivers on its cooperative federalism framing, or whether it is remembered as a deal made over BC's head.