The war with Iran is no longer a regional skirmish. It is a hot war with a measurable body count and an economic chokepoint at its centre. Crude keeps climbing on top of record refining margins, and the $4/gallon national average for gasoline is a consequence of something most investors still underestimate: IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran did not hold that card before February, and now they do. A chokepoint is worth more than a warhead precisely because it can be deployed at will, again and again, including in the weeks before an American election. That is why negotiations failed. And it's why escalation is the more likely outcome in the days ahead.

Which brings everything to July 23rd at midnight, when the 10% tariffs on all US trading partners expire. The President has two options that point in opposite directions: let them lapse, or reload them as pressure on allies he wants standing beside the United States in the Gulf. Experts put 1/3 odds on expiry, 1/3 on a quiet extension at current 10% levels, and 1/3 on at least some of the 87 exposed nations seeing rates climb, either to the 12.5% or higher, as the White House attempts to reconstruct the IEEPA tariff architecture the Supreme Court struck down in February. In a sense, July 24th, 2026 is the first moment this conflict has a real chance to expand from the Gulf into trade and NATO relations simultaneously.