The US Census Bureau reported that US retail sales grew at their fastest pace in 10 months in March 2026. Economists were expecting relatively strong sales, due in part to households receiving tax refunds, boosting disposable income. But the increase also came in response to higher prices, particularly at the gasoline pump. The retail sales report is not adjusted for inflation, so the higher prices for some goods, particularly energy costs, showed up in higher sales results. Still, retail sales were relatively solid, demonstrating US consumers’ relative strength.

• Retail sales in the US rose by 1.7% in March over the previous month. This was the biggest increase in a month since March of last year. March’s increase also topped economists’ expectations, based on a Bloomberg survey.
• Sales at gasoline stations rose by 16% over the month. The conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy costs, including for gasoline. Consumers were forced to pay much higher prices at the pump.
• Excluding gasoline, sales were relatively solid across several product categories. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and at home furnishing stores rose over the month.
• A separate report from the National Association of Realtors showed that home sales rose by 1.5% in March. This marked its second straight increase, benefiting from higher inventory of homes for sale.

Despite falling confidence and economic concerns amid the conflict in the Mideast, US consumers continued to show their relative resiliency. Still, concerns are growing that spending could pull back if consumer prices continue to increase. The US real estate market showed some improvement in March on improving supply despite higher borrowing costs. However, sales were down on a year-over-year basis, suggesting the real estate market is struggling to gain traction at the beginning of 2026.

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