In an otherwise relatively slow week for Canadian economic announcements, we will be getting a critical one when Statistics Canada announces Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025. The outlook for Canada’s economy is highly uncertain amid trade disruptions with the US and slowing global economic activity. This will give us a look at the health of the economy before tariffs really took hold. Outside of Canada, we will get several economic announcements, which will be closely analyzed to get some insight on the impact of tariffs. Here’s what to watch for this week.

• Canada’s GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 will be released on Friday. Canada’s economy grew by 2.6%, annualized, in the fourth quarter of 2024 but is expected to have slowed in the first quarter. Consumer and business spending will be closely analyzed in this report.
• South of the border, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) will be announced on Friday. The PCE is the preferred inflation gauge for the US Federal Reserve Board. The PCE stood at 2.3% in March. Personal spending and income will also be included in this report.
• Looking outside of North America, China’s industrial profits will be announced tonight, European consumer confidence on Tuesday, Japan’s retail sales on Thursday and India’s economic growth on Friday.
• CIBC will report its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Thursday. Several other Canadian banks will also report this week. Notable earnings in the US include NVIDIA, Salesforce and Costco.

As we enter the last week of May, Canadian equities are up slightly over the year. Meanwhile, US equities are largely flat. Markets for equities, bonds and commodities have seen relatively wide swings this year as trade uncertainty grips market participants. This week’s economic reports will shed some light on how trade tensions are impacting Canadian and global economic activity.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.