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CIBC Private Wealth

July 10, 2025

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Morning Market Brief

 

The US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) released the minutes from its last meeting. The Fed held steady in June, citing solid economic conditions and moderating inflation. US President Donald Trump has often expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed for not lowering interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to reiterate the central bank’s commitment to maintaining price stability and maximizing employment, despite calls from President Trump to lower rates.

  • The Fed held its federal funds rate at a target range of 4.25%–4.50% in response to solid economic activity, relatively elevated inflation and a resilient labour market.
  • Fed officials are divided on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, which has contributed to the Fed holding steady. There is uncertainty on when and by how much tariffs could impact inflation.
  • Most officials believe a rate cut is likely this year, but they agree the Fed can be patient amid stable economic conditions.
  • Economic uncertainty has risen this week after President Trump provided details on higher tariffs set for August 1. He also announced a 50% tariff on copper, shaking commodity markets. The US is looking to increase domestic mining and smelting activity.
  • The US real estate market saw some signs of optimism. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported that mortgage applications rose by 9.4% over the week ended July 4. This was the third straight increase and the largest since May. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked lower over the same week.

The Fed minutes did little to pinpoint an exact timeframe for a rate cut. However, a rate cut seems likely this year. Recent tariff announcements provide a bit of clarity, which might help the Fed formulate its monetary policy decisions. The Fed seems committed to taking a wait-and-see approach as it monitors the impact of tariffs on inflation and the US economy.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. The CIBC logo and “CIBC Private Wealth” are trademarks of CIBC, used under license.