Mark Newsome
January 01, 2021
My Market Prediction for 2021
My prediction is the same as every year. I have no clue and neither does anyone else. The
only difference is that I admit it.
2020 should have proved my point that no one can predict markets. If one cannot predict a
pandemic one cannot predict markets.
Nonetheless, I am always happy to write about valuations. Housing prices appear high to me.
However, the prices are not high when one considers interest rates. If interest rates were not
so low then housing prices could not be justified.
The same logic applies to the stock market. Low interest rates make all long lived assets more
valuable. If interest rates stay low, the stock market is actually significantly undervalued.
That is a big “if” but it does appear that interest rates will stay low. In the meantime;
corporate earnings will grow over time and make corporations more valuable. I find comfort
knowing the relationship between interest rates and the valuation of the stock market has not
been so attractive since 1982 according to Nobel Prize Laureate, Robert Shiller.
I am still not making any predictions for 2021. I just think that the stock market offers good
value.