I had lunch with Tye Bousada, founding partner, president and co-CEO of EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. and director of EdgePoint Wealth Management Inc. last week. He is one of the most engaging and interesting people I have met in my 40 years in the industry. That is saying something, as I had the honor of spending time one on one with Sir John Templeton in the 1990s. He and Tye share three traits that come to mind immediately. Honesty, humility and savviness.

My lunch with Tye was about two hours. We covered many topics. It is worth noting that neither of us spent virtually any time making short-term forecasts about interest rates, inflation, or the economy as a whole. We discussed the implications of different outcomes and factors to guard against. We agreed that some of the formerly high-flying, speculative stocks still look unattractive as investments. Also, we agreed that some company shares appear irrationally inexpensive regardless of any economic uncertainties.

Tye stated that he did not know of anyone who had a positive outlook these days. Interestingly, I went for a walk with my neighbour the other day and he spontaneously said the exact same thing. My neighbour used to be the head of the research department of CIBC World Markets and is currently Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning at CIBC.

Tye and my neighbour are making the point that the negativity is way overdone. They are not making a prediction, but they are reminding me of an investing maxim – when everyone is negative, it is likely time to be positive.

Warren Buffet famously said “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Sir John Templeton similarly stated, “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”

Looking for something to share with clients about EdgePoint and Cymbria, I asked Tye what he sees for the stocks in their portfolios in the next 3-5 years. I would only ask this question of someone who I knew to be honest and humble.

He presented a logical case. Based upon current valuations and corporate growth expectations over four years, a 50% increase is a sensible expectation in his opinion. We have had numerous lunches over the years and I have known Tye to anticipate both higher and lower expectations over a four-year time horizon. I accept his opinion as being sincere and rational.

Personally, I am focused on four years or ten years from now. Not what may or may not happen next month.