Scott Sheppard
October 31, 2023
Money Economy Monthly update Monthly commentaryTactical Growth Mandate - Monthly Update
A few weeks ago I was lucky enough to catch Billy Joel's 139th show at Madison Square Gardens. His hit, "I Go to Extremes" is one of my favorites of all time. I can't get the bloody song out of my head this past few weeks, and it seems that all around us, everything is at extremes; the stock market, geopolitical events, economic conditions, the list goes on.
The biggest culprit of the struggling stock market are the bank borrowing rates, which are hitting highs not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis. The high cost of borrowing is impacting businesses and consumers alike as incomes can not keep up with the higher interest rates and the higher costs of living. Unsurprisingly, recent reports are showing credit card companies reporting high defaults and auto-loan companies reporting higher missed payments.
With credit card bills and auto loans going unpaid, among other significant economic factors, the value of bad credit risk on the books is causing banks to struggle. This has led to some banks beginning to tighten their purse strings, and major layoffs and branch closures have been announced by various North American banks. With credit hard to come by, and the U.S. government teetering on the verge of another shut down in mid-November, liquidity appears to be drying up fast from where I’m watching.
Oh yeah, almost forgot, there's yet another MAJOR conflict in the Middle East requiring major investment from the U.S.A. and other NATO nations. This conflict has contributed to already volatile international geopolitical conditions, and is causing further economic stress, especially since the demand for money is so great already in developed nations.
As stock markets, geopolitics, and the economy as whole, grapple with extremes, investors are taking note and questioning if the risk they're assuming in their investment portfolios is still warranted. Looking at the three year returns on the benchmarks, many are finding that paying debt and locking up money in GICs is a better use of funds. We believe we have managed to stay on the right side of change over the past two years. That’s no trick, but a pretty good treat!