I have a mind that never turns off. I am constantly thinking about information and impacts and consequences, both intended and not. Sometimes, this constant thinking is both a blessing and a curse. However, a positive of my constantly active mind is that I accept very little information without critically analyzing the data, considering the quality of the information, and the possible outcomes of applying said information. At times, I may over-analyze to the point where it becomes all consuming. I’ve had more than one all-nighter these past several months trying to sort through the many repercussions of the various global conflicts, political rhetoric, and other current events to which we, and the markets, are exposed 24/7.

Lately, I’ve been spending time over-studying corporate earnings reports and management outlooks for Christmas sales in the face of inflation and high interest rates, both of which are dramatically impacting consumers' ability to buy. Some forecasts are downright ugly and are working into company stock prices. As the world remains crippled with debt, I remain a little skeptical of how strongly consumer spending, and therefore stock prices, can grow from here.

With this in mind, I invite you to take a page out of my book when it comes to critical thinking. When your neighbour/buddy brags that they’re up 6% or 7% on their investments this year after having just spoken to their advisor, probe a little further and ask how much they’re up over two years. Unfortunately, you’ll find that the answer is not likely, if their investments are up at all. Long time readers may recall a key reason I produce this regular newsletter was to create total transparency for you, the investor, so you could easily calculate value in the service. Some years ago, I had a colourful client from Anchor Point tell me “most investment fellers are bigger bluffs than Santa Claus”. Santa and I may have a similar figure, and I’m working on the beard, but it's not magic and elves that make investing successful. It's hard work, a disciplined approach, and constantly over-analyzing.

Wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas, and all the best in 2024!