As autumn arrives and we find ourselves spending more time indoors, the temptation to consume endless streams of news and social media grows. For investors, this season often brings a flood of expert opinions and market predictions—some of which can be unsettling or even contradictory. A memorable example of this occurred in March 2020, when hedge fund manager Bill Ackman made headlines with his dire warnings about the U.S. economy, only to reverse his market stance days later.

The Ackman Episode: A Case Study in Market Volatility

On March 18, 2020, Bill Ackman appeared on CNBC, delivering an emotional interview where he warned that “hell is coming” and that the U.S. was at risk of not surviving the COVID-19 pandemic without drastic action. Ackman urged the government to “shut it all down” (CNBC, 2020). His comments contributed to a wave of panic in already-volatile markets.

Just five days later, Ackman revealed that he had closed his short positions—bets that the market would fall—and had gone long, investing in companies he believed would recover from the crisis. The market soon began a historic rebound, leaving many investors who had sold in panic regretting their decisions.

The Perils of Following the Noise

Ackman’s rapid pivot is a powerful reminder that even the most respected experts can change their views quickly—and that it’s nearly impossible for individual investors to keep up with every twist and turn. In the days following his interview, headlines and social media were flooded with fear and speculation. For many, the urge to act—whether by selling stocks or moving to cash—was overwhelming.

Yet, as history shows, those who stayed the course and avoided knee-jerk reactions were rewarded. The S&P 500 bottomed on March 23, 2020, and went on to recover much of its losses in the months that followed.

Staying Focused Amid the Fall Frenzy

As we enter the fall season—a time when media consumption typically rises—it’s important to remember the lessons of March 2020. The constant barrage of expert opinions, breaking news, and social media hot takes can cloud judgment and lead to costly mistakes. Instead, consider these strategies:

• Limit your media intake: Set boundaries on how much financial news you consume.
• Stick to your plan: Trust in your long-term investment strategy, rather than reacting to short-term noise.
• Consult your advisor: Before making major changes, seek guidance from a trusted professional.

By tuning out the noise and focusing on your goals, you can avoid being swept up in the emotional tides of the market—and position yourself for long-term success.

Randy, Ian, and Harrison