CIBC Private Wealth
October 01, 2026
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Statistics Canada (StatsCan) released its gross domestic product (GDP) report for July on Tuesday, showing Canadian economic growth was flat after a strong second quarter. The outlook for economic growth has been clouded in response to fresh trade tensions with the US, which is putting pressure on
some key sectors of Canada’s economy. One of those sectors is steel, where a large manufacturer plans to suspend some operations.
Canada’s GDP was largely unchanged in July. Construction rose 1.3%, its fourth straight monthly gain, and utilities also grew. But those gains were offset by declines in manufacturing, mining, and oil and gas extraction, leaving overall output flat.
An early estimate suggests August is looking a little better. StatsCan's flash estimate points to GDP growth of 0.2% in August, a modest improvement over July.
New US import ban took affect Tuesday at midnight. The US banned imports of some Canadian alcohol, whey and molasses, and larger motorcycles, worth roughly $1.4 billion. This marks the latest escalation after Canada's own retaliatory tariffs and provincial bans on US alcohol.
Tariffs are hurting Canada’s steel sector. Hamilton-based steelmaker Stelco, owned by
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., said it will indefinitely idle some of its operations, citing US tariffs on steel. The move affects up to 500 employees, with the union confirming 350 layoffs. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged legal action against Cleveland-Cliffs.
July's manufacturing decline and Stelco’s suspended operations suggest tariff-exposed sectors are absorbing the brunt of the trade conflict, even as other parts of the economy hold up.
Canada’s GDP result and headlines paint a picture of an economy holding steady overall, but with real, job-level pain concentrated in the sectors most exposed to US tariffs. Until trade tensions ease, that split could continue. By all accounts, Canada and the US are speaking but don’t appear to be making substantial progress towards a trade deal.
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