The US and Iran were unable to come to an agreement over the weekend to end the conflict in the Middle East. They currently sit in the middle of a two-week ceasefire agreement, where both sides may continue to try to put an end to the conflict. Both sides subsequently ramped up threats, which some policy experts say may be negotiating tactics. Still, the conflict lingers on, and it sent oil prices much higher early in the day before paring back after US President Donald Trump said Iran reached out for a deal after the US set up its blockade.

• After discussions this past weekend ended, the US said it would create a blockade on Iranian-linked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with threats against ports along the Persian Gulf.
• In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) lowered its forecast for the global demand for oil in the second quarter of 2026. OPEC+ had previously reported that it would raise oil production in May, but it is unclear it can deliver with many members impacted by the conflict in the Middle East.
• Back in Canada, consumers have seen the impact of the conflict on oil prices at the gasoline pump. This is expected to raise consumer prices and could weigh on Canadians’ discretionary spending.
• The threat of higher prices has weighed on Canadian consumer confidence in recent weeks. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index dropped to 46.3 over the week ended April 10, its lowest level since May 2025.

Adding to Canadians’ worry is a weak labour market. Data from last Friday showed the Canadian economy added jobs but the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. Markets continue to be jittery without a firm end to the conflict in sight and the threats from both sides picking up yesterday.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.