Recent market headlines have been dominated by tariff announcements, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions. At times like these, we understand how easy it is to get swept up in the noise. Our commitment is to remain steady, clear-headed, and aligned with your long-term goals.
What’s Driving Markets Right Now?
The newly introduced U.S. tariff regime—announced on what has been dubbed “Liberation Day”—was far more aggressive than anticipated. Effective tariff rates could climb to 25–30%, levels unseen since the 1930s Smoot-Hawley era . This has injected a sharp jolt of uncertainty into markets, driving volatility higher and trimming global GDP expectations.
KKR recently revised their U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to just 0.5%, primarily due to tariff-related headwinds and fiscal tightening . At the same time, their inflation expectations for 2025 have increased to 4.0%, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path and signaling a broader regime shift in the global economy. (KKR, 2025)
But while headlines warn of slowing growth and trade disruption, history—and discipline—tell a different story.
Volatility Is Normal. Investor Behavior Often Isn’t.
Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of -12.8%, yet posted positive annual returns in 80% of those years . In fact, when markets are this technically “oversold,” forward returns over 5–20 days have often been positive, even during non-recessionary corrections .
Still, many investors make the same costly mistake: selling low and buying high. As DALBAR’s long-term study reminds us, the greatest risk to long-term wealth is not markets—but investor behavior (DALBAR Inc., 2024).
The Long-Term View Matters Most
Periods of volatility often feel unprecedented, but they are not. Whether it was the dot-com crash, the Global Financial Crisis, or the COVID-19 pandemic, markets have repeatedly demonstrated resilience. On average, bear markets last just one year with a -32% drawdown, while bull markets last nearly six years with gains of +277% .
We encourage clients to look beyond the headlines and consider this perspective: If you had invested on the day Time Magazine warned of crises in 1974, 1987, or 2009, your 10-year return would have exceeded 300% in many cases .
Our Strategy Remains Unchanged
We are long-term investors who seek high-quality businesses with strong balance sheets, growing dividends, and attractive valuations. The current environment is no exception. In fact, dislocations like these often present rare buying opportunities for those with patience and perspective.
We are actively monitoring the evolving macroeconomic conditions, particularly trade tensions and central bank responses. But we are not chasing headlines or reacting to daily noise. Our portfolios are built to withstand market shocks and downside protection in turbulent times, and long-term growth through quality.
Let’s Talk
If you have any questions or would like to review your financial plan, we’re here. We thank you for the continued trust you place in us and look forward to helping you navigate this environment with confidence and clarity.
Works Cited
DALBAR Inc. (2024). Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour, 2024.
KKR. (2025). 2025 April Tariffs Flash Macro.
