Statistics Canada released its Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours yesterday, providing a snapshot of Canada’s labour market in June. It found wage growth held steady even as hiring slowed, which could be a sign of a labour market gradually rebalancing.

• Average weekly earnings climbed to $1,344 in June, up 3.4% year over year, continuing to outpace inflation.
• Payroll employment remained virtually unchanged in June (up 4,800, +0.0%), representing a sharp slowdown from May’s gain of 45,000.
• Job vacancies increased to 509,100, up 2.8% year over year, while the unemployment-to-vacancy ratio eased to 2.9 jobless workers per opening.
• Manufacturing saw its first employment decline since December 2025, down 7,200, while public administration led with gains of 10,600.
• Average weekly hours held firm at 33.4, which was unchanged from both May and a year ago.

The data point to a labour market cooling gradually rather than cracking. Wages still running 3.4% above last year should continue to support consumer spending, even as flat payroll growth and softer job vacancies suggest employers are turning more cautious. With the Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) policy interest rate holding at 2.25% since July and its next announcement due September 2, these results may give the BoC little reason to move in either direction, keeping the rate steady the most likely outcome.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.