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Dr. Jay Smith

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Monthly Musings

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Jay Smith & Brad Brown

March 04, 2024

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Major Themes in 2024

Major themes to play out in 2024 

Economic Themes

  • We believe that short term interest rates will begin moving lower and could potentially decline more than many people think.
     
  • We expect inflation, which is currently falling, to decline further than people are expecting.
     
  • We expect real estate to bottom but we do not anticipate a V-shape recovery. We believe that real estate will begin to move back up higher but this is expected to be at a very slowly pace.
     
  • We do not expect a U.S. recession, but believe that GDP will slow dramatically from current levels.​​​​​​​

 

​​​​​​​​​​​Financial Market Themes

  • Corporate earnings, which have been surprisingly strong, are expected to remain strong helped by enhanced productivity and efficiencies.
    ​​​​​​​
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is anticipated to be the largest transformative trend since the advent of the internet.
     
  • Bond yields are expected to continue to decline, but we think that they will stop way short of where they were several years ago.

 

​​​​​​​Political Themes

  • We anticipate that the U.S. election will turn out to be a non-issue.
     
  • We expect that there will be a swing to the right politically in the U.S. and in Canada as well.

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<p class="Disclaimer"><sub><span style="font-size:7.0pt"><span arial="" style="font-family:">CIBC Private Wealth consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries, including CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. </span></span></sub></p> <p class="Disclaimer"><sub><span style="font-size:7.0pt"><span arial="" style="font-family:">The CIBC logo and &ldquo;CIBC Private Wealth&rdquo; are trademarks of CIBC, used under license. &ldquo;Wood Gundy&rdquo; is a registered trademark of CIBC World Markets Inc.</span></span></sub></p> <p class="Disclaimer">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Disclaimer"><sub><span style="font-size:7.0pt"><span arial="" style="font-family:">This information, including any opinion, is based on various sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change. CIBC and CIBC World Markets Inc., their affiliates, directors, officers and employees may buy, sell, or hold a position in securities of a company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may also perform financial advisory services, investment banking or other services for, or have lending or other credit relationships with the same. CIBC World Markets Inc. and its representatives will receive sales commissions and/or a spread between bid and ask prices if you purchase, sell or hold the securities referred to above. &copy; CIBC World Markets Inc. 2024.</span></span></sub></p> <p class="Disclaimer">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Disclaimer"><sub><span style="font-size:7.0pt"><span arial="" style="font-family:">Jay Smith is an Investment Advisor with CIBC Wood Gundy in Toronto, Ontario.&nbsp; The views of Jay Smith do not necessarily reflect those of CIBC World Markets Inc.</span></span></sub></p>
 

CIBC Private Wealth consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries, including CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc.

The CIBC logo and “CIBC Private Wealth” are trademarks of CIBC, used under license. “Wood Gundy” is a registered trademark of CIBC World Markets Inc.

 

This information, including any opinion, is based on various sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and is subject to change. CIBC and CIBC World Markets Inc., their affiliates, directors, officers and employees may buy, sell, or hold a position in securities of a company mentioned herein, its affiliates or subsidiaries, and may also perform financial advisory services, investment banking or other services for, or have lending or other credit relationships with the same. CIBC World Markets Inc. and its representatives will receive sales commissions and/or a spread between bid and ask prices if you purchase, sell or hold the securities referred to above. © CIBC World Markets Inc. 2024.

 

Jay Smith is an Investment Advisor with CIBC Wood Gundy in Toronto, Ontario.  The views of Jay Smith do not necessarily reflect those of CIBC World Markets Inc.

 
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