Jay Smith & Brad Brown
March 04, 2024
Commentary
Major Themes in 2024
Major themes to play out in 2024
Economic Themes
- We believe that short term interest rates will begin moving lower and could potentially decline more than many people think.
- We expect inflation, which is currently falling, to decline further than people are expecting.
- We expect real estate to bottom but we do not anticipate a V-shape recovery. We believe that real estate will begin to move back up higher but this is expected to be at a very slowly pace.
- We do not expect a U.S. recession, but believe that GDP will slow dramatically from current levels.
Financial Market Themes
- Corporate earnings, which have been surprisingly strong, are expected to remain strong helped by enhanced productivity and efficiencies.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) is anticipated to be the largest transformative trend since the advent of the internet.
- Bond yields are expected to continue to decline, but we think that they will stop way short of where they were several years ago.
- We anticipate that the U.S. election will turn out to be a non-issue.
- We expect that there will be a swing to the right politically in the U.S. and in Canada as well.