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Milan Cacic

August 22, 2022

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NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET, BUT CLOSE!

The market has now recovered 50% of the losses that occurred this year. If we use history is an indicator, what happens next is very important.

 

Typical bear market rallies, that is, a rise during a bear market that gives people optimism but then goes on to make new lows, does not recover 50% or more of the previous decline in the market. The chart below illustrates each major bear-market rally since the 1920s. It also shows how far the rally went before it reversed. As you can see, it is very rare for bear market rallies to go above a 50% recovery from the lows. This is important because we have now recovered more than 50% of the decline. If we continue moving higher over the next few weeks, we can be more confident that this is a new bull market and not a bear market trap! Only time will tell.

 

Bear-Market Rallies Graph

Source: What to make of the market’s rally, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments Canada,

 

I have also included a piece from our CIBC Economics team entitled “Canadian CPI: Accelerating core spells trouble”.

 

If you have any questions, please give us a call at any time.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Milan

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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