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Address 500 Centre Street SE 27th Floor Calgary AB, T2G 1A6
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Milan Cacic

March 01, 2024

Money Economy Commentary Weekly update Weekly commentary
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CONFUSING ECONOMIC DATA?

Interest rates remain high, yet the US economy continues to beat expectations. Only a few months ago, it was expected that the US economy would start to slow significantly however, not only has it not slowed, but it is actually accelerating. Meanwhile, the UK, Japan, Germany and Canada have all had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita. Technically speaking, this is a recession.

 

For those out there who feel confused, you're not alone! As you can see from the chart below, more and more business cycle indicators are indicating that we are at the beginning of a new economic cycle. The blue bars show the percentage chance [according to indicators] of what part of the economic cycle we are in. The yellow lines show are the previous quarter indicators. As you can see, the indicators are shifting from late end of cycle recession to the beginning of a new economic cycle. The only problem with this data is that the United States has not had a recession yet! Maybe the soft economic landing is done for the US. That would have some major implications for Canada [specifically the Canadian dollar] and the rest of the world. However, for the most part, this would be good. If the US economy starts to fire on all cylinders, it will likely drag the rest of the world with it. Just imagine if China could get their economic act together. Look out!

 

Chart

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research as of February 2, 2024

 

I've also included a piece from our CIBC Economics team entitled "Why Finance Ministers are still sweating it”.

 

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call at any time.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Milan

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