Milan Cacic
June 14, 2024
Financial literacy Economy Commentary Weekly update Weekly commentaryINFLATION - THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND…
This week, the US Consumer Price Index [CPI] was well below expectations. Core CPI was 0.16% month-over-month and headline inflation [all items] was 0.01% month over month. These are the lowest month over month rates since August 2021. We believe this opens the door for a September rate cut in the US.
As you can see from the chart below, we have had four consecutive months of declining month-over-month inflation. This is important because once the Fed is convinced that inflation is under control, they can begin to cut interest rates. As we've said in previous notes, investing in a rising interest-rate environment is like swimming against the current of a river. However, investing in a declining interest-rate environment is like swimming with the current.
Globally, interest rates are also trending down. Over the past few months, jurisdictions have been cutting rates. While just last week Canada and the Eurozone joined the club and cut their key interest rates as well. The UK is expected to cut in August and odds are going up that the US will cut in September. There is no doubt that interest rates are trending down. Let's hope this trend continues!
I have also included a piece from our CIBC economics team entitled “Striking out the BoC?”
As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call at any time.
Have a great weekend.
Milan