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Address 500 Centre Street SE 27th Floor Calgary AB, T2G 1A6
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Milan Cacic

November 22, 2024

Money Financial literacy Economy Commentary Weekly update Weekly commentary Year In review
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MORE COMMON THAN YOU THINK!

This week's note will be short and simple.

 

People seem to be concerned regarding the S&P 500 being up more than 20% so far this year. It appears that many people believe that this is unsustainable and there must be a correction coming soon. Times like these are a good opportunity to look at history as our guide, which will also temper our emotions.

 

As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 has finished with a total return above 25% in 26 out of the 96 years since 1928. That's 27% of the time. It’s equally important to consider the flip side – that the market has dropped 25% or more only 5 times in the same time period, which is just 5% of the time.

 

A chart showing annual total return (%) of the S&P 500 each year from 1928 to 2023

Source: Charlie Bilello. Nov 19, 2024, https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1859051080857886872

 

As we have stated before, the market has similarities to Newton's first law; an object in motion stays in motion until acted upon. So far, there don't seem to be any outside forces that are negatively acting on the market. At least not yet! I guess the moral of the story is to keep your portfolio diversified and enjoy the gains when they come. It's not always up!!

 

I have also included a report from our CIBC Economics team entitled “A few billion doesn’t buy you much these days”.

 

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Milan

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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