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Milan Cacic

March 14, 2025

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IT'S NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME…

As we navigate the current market environment, I wanted to take a moment to provide some perspective on the recent drawdown. As of today, the market is experiencing a 10% decline from its recent peak.

 

While this may seem concerning, it's essential to remember that market drawdowns are a normal part of the investing cycle. History has shown us that drawdowns of this magnitude are not only common, but also temporary.

 

As you can see from the chart below, every year has a drawdown and 2025 is no different. In fact, since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year drawdown of 13%. This current drawdown, while uncomfortable, is well within the realm of historical norms.

 

I realize that for many people it may feel like “It’s different this time”. It feels like many of Pres. Trump's policies are on-the-fly and delivered through social media, which is not what most of us are used to. It's important to remember that “It’s not different this time” where the markets are concerned. We've been through volatile times before and we will get through these volatile times as we have in the past. We do this by maintaining a disciplined investment approach and avoiding emotional decisions.

 

Our investment strategy remains focused on long-term goals, and we will continue to monitor the market closely.

A column chart showing total returns vs max drawdowns by year on the S&P 500 from 1988 to 2025 (as of March 13, 2025). Max drawdown represents biggest intra-year decline. Average max drawdown between 1980 and 2024 is marked as -13%, with numbers ranging from -3% to -48%.

I have also included a note from our CIBC Economics team entitled “Canada’s election: What’s in it for markets?”

 

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Milan

 

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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