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Milan Cacic

May 02, 2025

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LIBERAL ELECTION WIN – CAN CANADA REVERSE ITS ECONOMIC SLIDE..?

The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured a fourth consecutive term in the 2025 federal election, forming a minority government. While continuity may offer stability, it raises concerns about Canada’s economic trajectory – particularly given our troubling position on the global stage. As we have shown previously, Canada ranks second last among OECD nations for per-capita GDP growth from 2015 to 2024, with only 1.4% growth compared to 18.2% in the U.S. This stagnation, driven by weak productivity and low business investment, has left Canadians’ living standards slipping relative to our peers.

 

The Liberals campaigned on transforming Canada into an “energy superpower” through investments in clean and conventional energy, alongside major infrastructure projects like an East-West electricity grid and trade corridors. If realized, these initiatives could boost GDP by enhancing energy exports, improving trade efficiency, and attracting investment. As I have said in previous notes, Canada needs foreign direct investment. This has been lacking for the last 10 years and is a big reason our standard of living has not kept up with the rest of the world.

 

If Mark Carney follows through on what he said while campaigning, then there is hope that this negative trajectory will reverse. We will monitor the Liberals’ progress on infrastructure and energy closely and adjust the portfolios accordingly if tangible policies emerge.

 

A chart showing Real GDP Growth per Capita in the OECD from Q1 2015 to Q3 2024 by country. Canada sits second from the bottom at 1.4% , the US is mid-high at 18.2% and Ireland at the top with 41.7%.

 

I have also attached some commentary from our CIBC Economics team entitled “Hard data, soft data, weird data”.

 

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call.

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Milan

 

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