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Milan Cacic

April 10, 2026

Money Economy Commentary Weekly update Weekly commentary
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DONT BLINK, YOU’LL MISS IT... WHY MARKET TIMING IS A TOUGH GAME

This week was a perfect reminder of why it’s so important to stay invested and not try to time the market. On Wednesday, after news broke about the Iranian/US troops situation, the market jumped nearly 3%. Then, on Thursday, it kept climbing, up another half a percent. If you were sitting on the sidelines, you would have missed out on some of the best days in the market.

A table showing Q1 returns vs month-do-date returns for April on 3 major indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. Q1 returns all negative, as low as -7% and month-to-date returns are all positive, almost wiping out Q1 losses.

Source: LSEG. [SPX-UT, NCOMP-O, DJIA-DI]. Data as of Apr 10, 2026

History shows that missing just a few of the market’s best days can make it very hard to catch up. Markets are unpredictable and big gains often happen when you least expect them, usually after a period of uncertainty or bad news.

Here are the key takeaways:

  • Stay the course: Market volatility is normal. Trying to jump in and out based on headlines can lead to missing rebounds.
  • Invest for the long term: Over time, the market has rewarded those who stay invested. The longer you’re in, the more you smooth out the bumps.
  • Diversify: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. A balanced mix of investments helps you weather the storms and benefit from different market conditions.

Big moves, like we saw this week, often come out of nowhere. If you try to time your entry and exit, you risk missing out on the gains that drive long-term growth. The best strategy is to stick to your plan, stay diversified, and stay invested.

I have also included a piece from our CIBC Economics team entitled “The Efficiency Paradox”.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call at any time.

Have a great weekend.

Milan

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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