With Mother’s Day this weekend, I was thinking about one of the market’s oldest sayings: “Sell in May and go away”. The idea is that investors should step out of the market for the summer and come back in the fall. It sounds clever. The problem is it usually doesn’t work. As you can see from the chart below, while the return from May-Oct has historically been the smallest of the 6-month periods at 1.7%, markets have still moved higher 64.4% of the time during this period. So why would you want to miss out on those months?

Source: Carson Group, FactSet. Data as of Apr 25, 2023 (from 1950 onwards).

Historically, some of the market’s strongest days happen when nobody expects them, and missing just a handful of those days can have a major impact on long-term returns. Markets don’t move according to catchy slogans or calendar dates. They move unpredictably, which is exactly why trying to jump in and out becomes so dangerous.

In a way, good investing Is a lot like good parenting. Most moms don't raise their families by overreacting to every problem or changing direction every few weeks. They provide consistency, patience, guidance, and stability even when things feel uncertain.

Successful investing tends to work the same way.

The investors who tend to do best over time usually aren’t the ones making dramatic moves every few months Based on headlines or emotions. They're the ones who stay disciplined, stay diversified, and stay invested through both the good times and the difficult ones.

And maybe that’s the real lesson worth remembering this Mother’s Day. Good parenting, much like good investing, usually isn’t about being flashy or perfect. It’s about consistency, patience, and showing up year after year, through the good and the bad.

Turns out, mom was probably right about that too. Happy Mother’s day!

I have also included a piece from our CIBC Economics team entitled “Mr. Warsh goes to Washington”.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call at any time.

Have a great weekend.

Milan