For the last few years, the AI investment thesis has been pretty simple: spend, build, repeat.

And the spending has been staggering. The major technology companies continue to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into data centres, chips and AI infrastructure.

Source: Statista, Company Reports

But I think the AI story is starting to grow up.

Investors are beginning to ask a different question. Not “How much are you spending on AI?”, but “What are you getting for it?”.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about one of the more remarkable things happening in the market: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow roughly 24% in 2026, an extraordinary rate outside of a post-recession rebound. Some of that almost certainly must be the early benefits of AI showing up in corporate profits. In fact, Goldman Sachs estimates that companies benefiting from AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of the S&P 500's earnings growth this year.

Source: Factset, Goldman Sachs Research. As of May 27, 2026

The next phase could be even more interesting. The winners may increasingly be companies outside traditional technology that use all this computing power to become more productive – banks, insurers, industrial companies, healthcare businesses, and countless others. If AI allows these companies to produce more with the same number of people, improve margins, or grow faster, that's when AI moves from a technology story to an economy-wide earnings story.

The first stage of AI was about who could spend the most.

The next stage may be about who gets the most for what they spent.

I have also included a piece from our CIBC Economics team entitled “The fog of non-war”.

As always, if you have any questions, please feel free to give us a call at any time.

Have a great weekend.

Milan