As vaccinations continue to be administered in the US and Canada, and businesses like restaurants continue to open up, travel has also been on a growth trajectory as measured by TSA checkpoint data. Whether for business or pleasure, as shown by the blue line on the graph, people are flying more in 2021. Travel levels are not yet at the "normal" 2019 grey line but well above the falling orange line representing 2020, when travel was stalled due to COVID and the recession induced by government shutdowns.

Since February 2021 we have seen a change in US data as travel is picking up, reflecting a sea change in consumer behaviour, and the broad stock market reflecting a broader economic recovery beyond pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and technology companies. However, this growth is not like past recoveries as it has been fueled with stimulus money and, more importantly, the recession was not part of the normal economic cycle, but a result of government shutdowns.

Companies in hospitality are now reporting worker shortages, and we are seeing prices for lumber, used cars, houses, home appliances, etc. moving much higher, making the spectre of inflation a new concern for clients. We still think the best approach is to invest new capital by staging in your long-term money into equities with growing earnings, keeping cash on hand for your near-term fixed spending, and to always keep debt levels low and manageable, especially in light of the fact that the unexpected happens in life.

That is just good planning and a reminder that economies, which are just people working together, always figure things out and adapt.

We will be coming out a with a full mid-year report in either late July or very early August, and we hope you had a wonderful Canada Day!

Randy, Ian, and the team at R&R Investment Partners

Chart source: First Trust Portfolios Canada, Recovery Tracker