Elections, the Economy and Markets: Don't Confuse Me with the Facts
With an election set to occur in Canada on September 20th, many Canadians will contemplate changing their investment portfolios based on what the new government may or may not do, and this unsettled feeling in your stomach can be compounded by the competing and outlandish promises the different parties seem to make weekly, most of which will not become policy. This makes it critical at this time to remember that the economy and actual policy are more important than personality and what party gets in power; accordingly, let's reflect on a little history.
In the 1970s Canada was dominated by a spend happy Liberal government, both of the minority and majority persuasion, and the Canadian stock market averaged a 10.4% annual return for the decade.
In the 1980s, a decade when the government was roughly equally divided between the Trudeau Liberals for the first half of the decade and the Mulroney Conservatives for the second, the Canadian Stock market averaged 12.2% annually.
It should also be noted that in the 1990s the same Jean Chrétien who executed Pierre Trudeau's deficit spending in the late 70s as finance minister teamed up with his very capable Minister of Finance, Paul Martin, to run a more fiscally conservative government that cut spending and put the house back in order.
So what is the point? Arguing and venting with friends about politics, taxes and regulation is a national pastime, and to be clear we all understand we cannot deficit spend our way to prosperity. Yet we are better served investing that energy in matters we can control such as our asset allocation, our spending level, and investing with discipline as the economy is an extremely complex system that is ultimately profit seeking and thrives over time from innovation, regardless of who is in power.
Exercise your right to vote and we'll chat soon.
Randy, Ian, and the team at R&R Investment Partners