In the US, consumer confidence got a small boost on hopes the ceasefire in the Mideast war will result in a more lasting end to the conflict. Still, consumer confidence is down this year on worries about prices and the economy, which are expected to be impacted by the conflict. Lower confidence levels could drag down spending and investment, which would further hinder US economic growth.

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to edged higher to 92.8 in April from 92.2 in March. The increase surprised economists who were expecting consumer confidence to drop to 89.0, based on a Bloomberg survey.
• Confidence in the current economic environment went down in April, while expectations for the future were higher, according to the index. Hopes that the ceasefire will result in an agreement and end the war boosted confidence, particularly for the labour market.
• Looking at the US real estate market, home prices edged higher in February. The S&P Case-Shiller US National Composite Home Price Index rose by 0.09% in February. Meanwhile, the 20-City Composite Index fell by 0.05%.
• On a year-over-year basis, the 20-City Composite Index rose by 0.9%, which was its slowest pace of growth since July 2023.
• The US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) makes its interest rate decision today. The Fed held the target range for its federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its last meeting as it closely monitors the economic impact from the conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the uptick in confidence in April, US consumers continue to express uncertainty over the economy amid trade and geopolitical tensions. All eyes will be on the Fed today to see what it does with its federal funds rate and its remarks about the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on prices and economic activity. In addition to the Fed, the Bank of Canada is making its interest rate announcement today.

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