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Stephen Mirarchi

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CIBC Private Wealth

July 14, 2025

Money Education Financial literacy Economy News Weekly update
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Morning Market Brief

 

Economic announcements this week will be considered against a backdrop of tariff letters from the US administration that have been sent out to trading partners, including Canada. US President Donald Trump has suggested that the 35% tariff rate is partially to incentivize Canada to help stop the flow of fentanyl. Many announcements will focus on inflation this week.

  • Statistics Canada will release Canada’s core inflation data for June on Tuesday. In May, inflation remained unchanged at 2.5%, compared to the previous month. Monthly inflation data will also be released.
  • South of the border, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its core inflation data for June on Tuesday. Consumer prices rose by 2.8% in March, April and May. The US Federal Reserve Board will be paying attention and has guided for 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025.
  • Moving to announcements from abroad, China’s gross domestic product growth for the second quarter of 2025 is released today, as is Japan’s industrial production data. In an interesting week for inflation data, the UK will also report price trends for June on Wednesday.
  • Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index will be released on Thursday by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. The expectations of small businesses picked up to 47.3 in June from 40 in May.

Trade talks between Canada and the US ran into difficulties when Canada imposed the digital services tax. Talks resumed after the tax was lifted. Markets are still waiting to see what the impact of evolving tariffs will be on inflationary pressure, and so this week’s data could be useful to assess how much of the cost is being passed down to consumers from businesses. The US administration has indicated that it is considering a “blanket” level of tariffs between 15% and 20% on trading partners.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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