Just Kidding!

Wow, what a difference a month can make. When we last blogged about what was going on, the world was reacting to the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.

It was clear that the market response put pressure on the administration to loosen the tariff threats as the carnage in the stock and bond market was having a real effect on investors, executives, and the public at large. Inflation expectations spiked, as did the probability of a recession. We did observe a troubling triple threat, a declining $U.S., declining U.S. bond prices (higher yields), and declining U.S. stock prices which is never a good sign. This may have been what prompted the change in tone from the White House.

Turns out President Trump was just kidding. He and his administration have walked back many of the most egregious tariffs (although we are not sure if they have reduced the tariffs on the uninhabited island in the South Pacific) as they attempt to negotiate trade deals that work. July 9 looms large as the original tariffs are supposed to go into effect if trade deals are not reached.

The market responded positively with the initial pause in tariffs, rising almost 10% in ONE DAY. Since April 10, the S&P 500 has steady moved back towards the all-time high of 6144 set on February 19.

After a brief hiatus in March and April the Momentum trade is back. What makes this market movement different than other recoveries is that it has been led by retail investors. It seems these investors sniffed out the TACO (Trump always chickens out) trade before institutional investors. Usually, institutional investors have more data to show the profit cycle turning so invest early and retail investors usually wait for confirmation that the recovery is “real.” It also demonstrates that the “buy the dip” investor mentality is firmly entrenched, and that the momentum trade will continue to dominate in the near term as even this chaos from the White House can’t seem to derail its upward trajectory.

So where are we at? Q1 earnings beat expectations, but 2025 estimates have come down. Q1 GDP was pretty good, and the jobs market remains stable which is good. With this recovery we see that valuations are back to elevated levels, longer term interest rates remain stubbornly high, the Federal reserve and Bank of Canada are on hold, tariffs are still on the table this summer, and the chaos continues South of the border.

All in all a series of confusing signals (or maybe just noise) that makes it difficult to commit capital with confidence. Stu has been busy rebalancing portfolios to bring them back into line with our long-term strategic allocations. We are now examining some of our long-term winners that have grown to be outsized positions and are reducing some of our U.S. exposure in favour of International. Not huge moves, but prudent portfolio management.

My Independence Secured

(Feature of the Month)

Recently a couple came to us, and they brought with them the same question that quietly weighs on so many, “are we going to be, okay? Can we maintain the lifestyle that we’ve worked so hard to build?”

The husband was still working, with seven years to go before he could access his pension. They were supporting their daughter, now living abroad, and continuing to help their son through school. They anticipated helping with rent for at least the next five years. They owned their car for now, but a replacement was on the horizon.

And like many families, their wills and powers of attorney hadn’t been revisited in years—long before their children became young adults. We gently raised the topic of estate planning and legacy, not just as a task to check off, but as a meaningful way to protect what they’ve built and define what comes next.

We took the time to look at their entire picture—not just the numbers, but their goals, responsibilities, and hopes for the future. We built a financial plan that gave them clarity, security, and a roadmap forward.

When our time together wrapped up, they paused and said, “this was the best hour of our year.”

That’s what Independence means to us, “the freedom to choose whether to work or not, the confidence that your assets can support your lifestyle today and, in the years, ahead, and the peace of mind that comes from knowing you have enough—more than enough—to live the life you’ve envisioned.”

At The Applegath Group, we don’t offer one-size-fits-all solutions. We offer insight, context, and plans as individual as the lives behind them. That’s what sets us apart.

T.A.G. Reading

The women of TAG were proud to recently attend the CIBC International Women’s Day Symposium, centered around this year’s theme: Accelerating Action. As part of the event, we received a copy of The Let Them Theory by Mel Robbins – a thought provoking read that teaches you how to stop wasting energy on what you can’t control and start focusing on what truly matters: You. Your happiness. Your goals. Your life.

Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel: Winner of the 2015 Toronto Book Awards. An audacious, darkly glittering novel set in the eerie days of civilization’s collapse—the spellbinding story of a Hollywood star, his would-be savior, and a nomadic group of actors roaming the scattered outposts of the Great Lakes region, risking everything for art and humanity.

T.A.G. Grilling and Chilling

Lisa and Tom
Potato Salad
https://www.flavournetwork.ca/recipe/easy-creamy-dill-pickle-potato-salad/
Our Adjustments: Omit the dill potato chips and add a 375g pack of bacon instead. Also triple the amount of mayo to 3 tbsp

Matt
Grilled Shrimp
Toss raw, peeled shrimp in olive oil, salt, pepper, cayenne pepper, smoked paprika to taste (tough to go wrong here). Put 4-6 shrimp on each skewer. Grill until pink, internal temp of 145 Fahrenheit, 63 Celsius - Watch carefully because it’s very easy to overcook!

Carter
Our son Warren loves spending time outside. We gave him an old plant pot filled with new soil where he will do his own ‘mini gardening’ alongside us while we work in the yard. It gets him outside, active, and feels like he is ‘working’ like the grown-ups!

Stu
Classic Negroni
https://www.liquor.com/recipes/negroni/

Susy
The Carbon Bar (Restaurant quality grilling at home)
Since their inception in 2013, they've been dedicated to delivering an extraordinary culinary experience, showcasing the best of Texas-style BBQ, steaks, seafood, and original spices and sauces. The Carbon Bar has extended their hospitality beyond their restaurant through their online store, https://shop.thecarbonbar.ca/collections

Maddie
Speducci
Preheat your grill to 400-500 degrees. Keep it simple by evenly coating all sides of your meat with sea salt. You want to grill on both sides for 2-3 minutes or until the internal temperature reaches 145 degrees. Serve them hot off the grill and enjoy every bite!

Mara
Cranberry Sangria Mocktail
https://www.taste.com.au/recipes/cranberry-sangria/8BMTZjbq?r=recipes/mocktailrecipes&c=qy84wo1u/Mocktail%20recipes

Pear Salad with Blue Cheese
https://www.recipetineats.com/pear-salad-with-blue-cheese/

T.A.G. Talks / Blog

Lisa Applegath

June 19, 2025

Just Kidding!

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