March proved to be a near mirror image of last year. Remarkably, the White House’s “Art of the Deal” theatrics triggered a broad sell-off almost exactly one year apart—April 10th last year, April 8th this year. Markets reacted swiftly: on March 30th, bonds were down -2.66% as yields rose, TSX down -5.37%, S&P 500 CAD down -7.62%, international markets down -8.55%, and gold down -13%—so much for gold as a safe haven! The month ended with a strong rally as quarter-end buying lifted oversold stocks, but the market remained on edge, especially as the TACO trade re-emerged and rhetoric intensified.

In the end, March essentially erased February’s gains, though we remain positive year-to-date. I made some minor trims to overweight positions and added a few oversold names poised to benefit in a renewed bull market. With earnings season underway, I expect strong numbers—particularly from the MAG 7, which have underperformed but could surprise. 

Energy—oil, gas, renewables, and grid—is back in focus. Canada appears well-positioned, and it seems our government recognizes the strategic importance of a secure, durable energy supply. Once CUSMA is resolved (and the U.S. need for Canadian oil is addressed), I believe we’re set up well for the second half of the year.

Let’s hope the Iran situation resolves quietly in the coming weeks. After that, we can turn our attention to trade, AI, and private credit. 

Portfolio Construction

Once you’ve determined the right asset allocation for your client’s objectives, the next step is selecting investments for each “bucket.” With more ETFs and mutual funds than individual stocks, the choices are endless. Here’s how we cut through the noise:

Quality
For individual stocks, we seek companies with consistent earnings, steady or growing margins, modest debt, shareholder-friendly policies (dividends or buybacks), strong returns on invested capital, and positive momentum—ideally at a discount to the market. Surprisingly, “quality” has underperformed momentum and high beta in recent years, but we remain committed to these fundamentals.

Consistency of Return and Risk
When evaluating managers or ETFs, we look for consistent returns across long periods—not just a few stellar years followed by volatility. Many funds boast impressive short-term records, but if performance is concentrated in one or two years, you risk disappointment and impatience during inevitable downturns. We prefer managers with understandable, repeatable processes who protect capital during sell-offs.

Style and Market Cap Diversification
If a quality manager grows too large or concentrated, we add complementary styles—value, low volatility, dividend—or different market caps (small/mid cap) for diversification. Rotations between styles happen quickly; by trimming overweight positions and reallocating to “unloved” styles, we’re prepared for reversals. This sometimes means short-term underperformance, but history shows last year’s laggards can become this year’s leaders.

Concentration and Crowding
We avoid high concentration in any stock or sector, limiting position and sector weights (often based on beta). Human nature tempts us to double down on winners, but this increases risk. We also watch for overlap when adding funds or ETFs—many “diversifiers” own the same crowded names, especially in large-cap tech. We trim crowded trades proactively to manage downside risk.

Know Your Limits
No manager can excel in every asset class. We focus on a concentrated portfolio of Canadian dividend/growth stocks and quality U.S. companies, using managers or ETFs elsewhere. For bonds, we’ve shifted to active managers who add value net of fees, given the challenges in sourcing good bonds and the evolving risk landscape.

Fund or ETF?

We’re agnostic—our choice depends on valuations, concentration, and investor behavior. With high valuations and speculative activity today, we favor skilled managers who can protect capital and exploit dislocations. When fundamentals reassert and valuations become attractive, we’ll revisit cheap ETFs.

Third-Party Check
Even the best portfolios benefit from an outside review. We regularly have skilled analysts assess our risk/return metrics, and feedback has been strong regarding our approach to long-term success.

As a Globe and Mail article wisely put it:
“The real enemy of long-term compounding is not a few years of underperformance. It is deep drawdowns that permanently impair capital and take years to recover.”

Let’s not forget—the S&P 500 didn’t surpass its 2000 high until 2012 (aside from a brief period before the GFC).

T.A.G. Reading (…and Listening)

Oprah’s Super Soul: Awaken, discover and connect to the deeper meaning of the world around you with Oprah’s Super Soul podcast. Hear Oprah’s personal selection of her interviews with thought-leaders, best-selling authors, spiritual luminaries, as well as health and wellness experts. All designed to light you up, guide you through life’s big questions and help bring you one step closer to your best self. Mara

The Frozen River, Ariel Lawhon: A New York Times bestseller, GMA Book Club pick, and NPR Book of the Year. A gripping historical mystery inspired by the true story and diary of Martha Ballard, a courageous 18th-century midwife who challenged the legal system and chronicled her community’s secrets. In 1789 Maine, when a man is found dead in the frozen Kennebec River, Martha is called to investigate, drawing on her intimate knowledge of Hallowell’s hidden dramas—including a recent alleged rape involving powerful townsmen. As Martha’s findings are questioned and her diary becomes central to a scandal that threatens those she loves, she must decide how far she’ll go in pursuit of justice. Clever and subversive, Lawhon’s novel shines a light on an unsung heroine who defied the expectations of her time, weaving a tense and moving tale of resilience, truth, and the enduring impact of one remarkable woman. Lisa

1929: Named a New York Times Notable Book of 2025 and one of Barack Obama’s favorite reads of the year, "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin has been celebrated as a best book of 2025 by The Washington Post, TIME, The Economist, and more. Drawing on unprecedented access to historical records and newly uncovered documents, Sorkin delivers an electrifying account of the infamous Wall Street crash, revealing the visionaries and fraudsters, the euphoria and devastation, and the epic struggle between Wall Street and Washington that shaped a generation. Mirroring the market volatility and financial battles of today, "1929" goes far beyond money, exploring the psychology of power, the lure of endless boom times, and the peril of ignored warning signs. Hailed as a landmark work, this book is an essential blueprint for understanding the cycles of speculation, the forces behind financial upheaval, and the urgent lessons history continues to offer. Stu & Tom

Hot, Smart, Rich (HSR) Podcast: My favourite podcast to listen to is without a doubt, Hot Smart Rich (HSR). This catchy named podcast is co-founded by my wife Katie Sellers and her sister Maggie Sellers. HSR focuses on helping women to be the best versions of themselves while bringing to light many topics too difficult to raise, but doing so in a warm, welcoming, and encouraging way. The content itself is a wonderful blend of topical relevance, self-improvement, and goofy vulnerability that is still a rarity elsewhere. I look forward to every week when a new interview is released, despite having an inside track as to what’s to come! Carter

The Daily Stoic, Ryan Holiday: the only authorized print edition of this beloved classic in the US and complete with a ribbon marker, has sold over two million copies and remains the go-to daily devotional for Stoic wisdom. Drawing on the timeless teachings that inspired everyone from George Washington and Ralph Waldo Emerson to today’s top athletes and CEOs, this book delivers 366 days of Stoic meditations and exercises, featuring fresh translations from Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, Epictetus, and other great thinkers. Each entry includes a powerful quotation, historical context, insightful commentary, and a helpful glossary, offering readers daily guidance in finding serenity, self-knowledge, and resilience for a better life—making Stoic philosophy a practical companion for every day of the year. Maddie

Unreasonable Hospitality, Will Guidara: At just twenty-six, Will Guidara took over the struggling Eleven Madison Park and, through radical reinvention and a unique partnership between kitchen and dining room, transformed it into the world’s best restaurant within eleven years. In this inspiring account, Guidara shares how over-the-top, personalized hospitality—like organizing a sledding trip for guests who’d never seen snow or creating a beach scene for a couple with a cancelled vacation—set a new standard for unforgettable experiences, both for patrons and his own team. With lessons on intentional leadership, the power of generosity, and the impact of thinking like an owner, Guidara shows how any business can embrace hospitality to turn everyday transactions into extraordinary moments. Featuring vivid stories and insights from his journey alongside industry legends, he invites us all to discover the magic in our work and relationships, elevating service for ourselves, our teams, and those we serve. Susy

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Yourself: Your path to professional success begins with honest self-reflection, and HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Yourself is the essential guide to maximizing your potential. Curated from hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles, this collection features the most impactful insights—including the bonus piece “How Will You Measure Your Life?” by Clayton M. Christensen—to help you stay engaged over a long career, align with your core values, seek candid feedback, maintain energy, balance life’s demands, foster positive organizational culture, and build resilience. With practical strategies from renowned thinkers like “Managing Oneself,” “How Resilience Works,” and “Primal Leadership,” this book equips you to manage your time, energy, and leadership with intention, making it a must-read for anyone committed to personal and professional growth. Matt
 

T.A.G. Team Spotlight

Mara Draper, Administrative Assistant

Mara has been a dedicated professional in the financial services industry since 2013, consistently demonstrating a passion for learning and growth. She holds a diploma in Medical Administration from Metro College of Technology, and has furthered her expertise through a continuing education program in Administration with the Toronto District School Board. Committed to ongoing professional development, Mara has also successfully completed the Canadian Securities Course (CSC) and the Conduct and Practices Handbook (CPH) exam. She is currently on track to become a licensed Investment Representative this spring, further expanding her ability to support our clients and team.

In her role as our team’s administrator, Mara is the cornerstone of our daily operations. She approaches every task with precision, care, and a genuine desire to make a positive impact. Mara’s meticulous attention to detail and proactive approach ensure that our processes run smoothly, allowing our team to focus on delivering outstanding service. Her dedication to excellence is evident in everything she does, from managing complex administrative tasks to anticipating the needs of both clients and colleagues.

Mara’s commitment to client service is at the heart of her work. She supports clients with a wide range of requests, including withdrawals, deposits, annual contributions, statements, tax documents, and general account updates. Her approachable and empathetic manner helps clients feel comfortable and confident, knowing their needs are being handled with the utmost professionalism and care. Mara takes pride in building strong, trusting relationships and is always willing to go the extra mile to ensure a seamless client experience.

Beyond her professional achievements, Mara values balance and connection in her personal life. She is an avid reader who finds joy in exploring new ideas and perspectives through books. At home, she cherishes time spent with her husband, stepson, and their beloved dog, Ella. When she isn’t reading or enjoying family time, Mara loves unwinding at the spa, immersing herself in podcasts and audiobooks, and attending theatre performances. Her enthusiasm for learning, both personally and professionally, is matched only by her warmth and dedication to those around her.

LinkedIn

If you haven’t already connected with Lisa, Matt, Carter and Maddie on LinkedIn, we invite you to do so via the links below. As our T.A.G. Relationships Managers, it’s another wonderful way to stay connected with The Applegath Group.