Lisa Applegath
July 28, 2025
Halfway Through…What a Ride!
| June has come and gone, marking the halfway point of 2025. It has been difficult for most of us to even take a breath along the way. From inauguration day forward, it has been a steady stream of news that many of us never thought we would see in our lifetimes. Add in the resignation of Justin Trudeau, a new Prime Minister, a reordering of the global order, continued conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, and you have six months that will surely be examined by historians for generations.
The good news is that, despite a brief hiccup in April and May, the investment world has remained remarkably resilient. It is natural to assume that after two very good years, there may be a period of digestion, and certainly in the US that has been the case. Canada, on the other hand, has been an out-performer, as the TSX has reached all-time highs recently on the back of a huge move in the gold sector and a significant rally by our banks over the last month. Europe appears to have been forced out of its economic complacency and, facing threats of tariffs from the US and security concerns from Russia, is getting serious about freeing up the purse strings and reducing the regulatory strangulation of Brussels.
On the economic front, bond yields remain contained with slight downward pressure, the jobs picture remains stable, earnings look to be good for Q2, and there is plenty of money in the system, so liquidity is strong. The recent passing of OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) includes some very business-friendly provisions, which has garnered enthusiasm among investors. Finally, the AI trade is working again. All of these factors support the markets, and investors are increasingly eager to commit capital to risk assets (FOMO).
There are a couple of flies in the ointment that we continue to monitor. The most recent tariff threats have taken on a more menacing tone, as they are being positioned as retribution for non-economic reasons. The market keeps marching higher despite analysts continuing to lower their earnings estimates. So, despite the robust earnings surprise of Q1, valuations have crept back up to the heady levels we last saw in December 2021 and, by one measure (CAPE Shiller), are the third most expensive in history. We are also seeing some signs of excess speculation, whether in recent IPO performance or the many double- or triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs.
In June, we reallocated some of our US allocation to two international managers, as the valuations are more attractive and continued weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for these assets.
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My Wealth Secured
(Feature of the Month)
At TAG, our top priority is to ensure your wealth is both protected and positioned for growth. We understand that your financial future depends on thoughtful strategies and careful stewardship of your assets. Our approach is built on resilience, adaptability, and a commitment to finding the best opportunities in any market environment. Here’s how we work to secure your wealth and help you achieve your long-term goals:
Q: How does TAG assist with protecting and growing my wealth over time?
A: We focus on building strong, diversified portfolios designed to weather market ups and downs. By carefully balancing risk and return, we aim to deliver the results you need while ensuring you feel confident and secure about your financial future.
Q: What does “open architecture” mean for my investments?
A: Open architecture means we aren’t restricted to a limited set of investment products. Instead, we search the entire market for the best options in each asset class, whether that’s stocks, bonds, or alternative investments. This flexibility allows us to adapt quickly as new opportunities or risks emerge.
Q: Can you give an example of how your investment approach has changed over time?
A: Certainly. Before the 2008 financial crisis, we could easily buy high-quality bonds for our clients, taking the time to evaluate each opportunity. After the crisis, these opportunities became scarce, so we adapted by using low-cost bond ETFs to maintain diversification and efficiency in client portfolios. As rates continued to decline, at points below the rate of inflation, and bond quality decreased we felt the return in ETF’s wasn’t sufficient for the risk. We then sought to find active managers that would carefully select the bonds they owned and manage the credit quality and interest rate sensitivity.
Q: Are active managers worth the extra cost?
A: In our experience, yes. Although active managers charge higher fees than ETFs, their expertise allows them to generate better returns after fees and can help reduce risk. This means your portfolio can perform better and be more resilient in challenging markets.
Q: How do you handle today’s market conditions?
A: Given today’s high valuations and uncertain outlook, we rely more on active managers who specialize in protecting against losses during downturns. While this approach might not always beat the market in the short term, it helps us manage risk and safeguard your wealth over the long run.
T.A.G. Sharing
We are excited to share with you a collection of micro vacation ideas curated by our team. Each suggestion reflects our personal experiences and unique perspectives, offering creative ways to make the most of short breaks and local getaways. We hope these ideas inspire you to discover new destinations, recharge, and enjoy memorable moments, whether you have a weekend or just a single day to spare. Our goal is to help you find accessible and enjoyable escapes that fit seamlessly into your busy schedule.
Down Home (Grey County, ON): Two hours north of the city, chef Joel Gray and sommelier Hannah Harradine weave magic across 10-courses of tasting menu perfection at their beautiful Markdale Farm. Down Home, nestled within the scenic countryside of the Grey highlands, is a pastoral experience that ties together their love of the province and the nearby farms. From wild leeks grown right on their property to braised pig’s head from Good Family Farms, the supply chain is short, and the wine list is blissfully VQA. In the summer months, guests gather around the open fire for a cooking demo and take foraging walks before heading inside the cozy farmhouse for a seasonal menu that’s always changing. Lisa and Tom
Kingston is the perfect weekend getaway for foodies! With more restaurants per capita than almost any other Canadian city, this charming waterfront city is full of delicious spots to discover. Some of my favourites include Tango Nuevo, The Everly, Chez Piggy, and Pan Chancho Bakery – make sure to pack an appetite!! Maddie
Sometimes even a same-day trip can provide the getaway and reset we desperately need as toddler parents. One activity we’ve recently enjoyed was doing a day trip to Thermea Spa in Whitby. Making a full day outing of the trip (without having to spend for accommodations) gave us the rejuvenation to feel like we went somewhere far away, when it only took an hour’s drive! Carter
Oban Inn Spa – Niagara on the Lake. Oban Inn Spa Restaurant Small, old hotel right by the water and across the street from Niagara-on-the-Lake Golf Club for those interested. It’s the oldest golf course in North America. Outside of golf, lots to do there. Shows, dining, wineries etc. Stu
Bon Echo Provincial Park: Located in southeastern Ontario, Canada. The park is celebrated for its stunning Mazinaw Rock, a towering 100-metre-high cliff adorned with Indigenous pictographs that rises dramatically above Mazinaw Lake. Visitors are drawn to Bon Echo for its diverse recreational opportunities, including hiking, canoeing, swimming, and camping. The park’s rich biodiversity, scenic landscapes, and cultural heritage make it a popular spot for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts seeking both adventure and tranquility. Matt
Somewhat similar to what Lisa and Tom shared, but in the other direction, Sunday lunches at Littlejohn Farm in Prince Edward County offer a truly special culinary experience. Guests are welcomed to a picturesque farm setting, where they can enjoy thoughtfully prepared, farm-to-table meals featuring locally sourced ingredients. The atmosphere is warm and communal, with long-table dining that encourages conversation and connection. Each Sunday lunch is a celebration of the region’s seasonal bounty, expertly crafted by the Littlejohn Farm team. It’s an ideal way to unwind, savor delicious food, and immerse yourself in the charm of Prince Edward County. Susy
If you’re looking for a fun and memorable way to spend a day outdoors, Elora Rapids is a fantastic choice. My husband I just booked this experience outside Toronto – a chance to go tubing down the Grand River, taking in the breathtaking views of the Elora Gorge and the surrounding nature. The experience is both relaxing and exciting, and everything you need—from tubes to safety gear—is provided, so you can simply show up and enjoy. Whether you’re planning a family outing or a getaway with friends, Elora Rapids offers an easy and enjoyable escape that’s just a short drive away. Mara
Enjoy your summer!
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