This brief Washington Post article provides excellent simulations that allow the reader to see the relative effectiveness of social isolation and the relative ineffectiveness of quarantines and the 'do nothing' strategy at preventing highly infectious viruses from propagating.  

As I stated in Putting COVID-19 In Perspective for Investors, I believe that this market dislocation will create an excellent buying opportunity for investors with capital, courage, and conviction. Sentiment appears to be driving the markets and I continue to believe that sentiment will significantly improve when we see a consistent slowdown in the number of daily injections in the US.   In the near term, investors should focus on investments that benefit from volatility in equity markets, volatility in sentiment, and volatility in fixed income spreads.

Positively, this situation appears to have become a catalyst that forces people, political parties, companies and nations to work together more closely. There will likely be a few additional silver linings to the uncomfortable and scary situation that this coronavirus has caused.

Delli (delli@cibc.com)

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